John Curtice's blog

John Curtice discusses the most recent polls and how in the final week of the campaign we may secure a clearer and more consistent picture of just where the referendum race stands.

The last ten days have transformed perceptions of the referendum race. Although they persistently and consistently disagreed about the size of its lead, every independently commissioned poll had hitherto put No ahead. Few expected anything other than a majority vote to stay in the Union.

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John Curtice examines the latest polls, in a post originally published on What Scotland Thinks. Three polls of voting intentions were released yesterday evening and appear in today’s papers. One was conducted by ICM for The Scotsman, one by Survation for the Daily Mail while the third was undertake... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
In a blog originally published at The Conversation, John Curtice rounds up the debate thus far. Just a few short weeks ago, it looked as though it was clear who was going to win the Scottish independence referendum. Although the polls persistently disagreed with each other as to how far it was behi... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
John Curtice of What Scotland Thinks on new entrants to the polling scene. The excitement generated by the narrowing of the No lead in the polls has unsurprisingly persuaded new media organisations to enter the polling fray. On Friday The Guardian commissioned its first poll of voting intentions in... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on three polls by YouGov, one  by Survation, one by TNS BMRB  and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 28 August and  11 September. The most recent pol... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
John Curtice discusses the most recent polls and how in the final week of the campaign we may secure a clearer and more consistent picture of just where the referendum race stands. The last ten days have transformed perceptions of the referendum race. Although they persistently and consistently dis... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
John Curtice of What Scotland Thinks responds to the latest polls from YouGov and Panelbase. The original blog was published here. Last Tuesday YouGov, hitherto a company that had painted a pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects of winning on 18th September, generated considerable exciteme... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Tuesday’s leaders’ debate brought the hiatus to campaigning occasioned by the Commonwealth Games to an end, and marked the beginning of the final six week phase of the referendum. MSPs are back (early) at Holyrood and both sides are ready to fight it out for every last voter. The Yes side begin thi... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
John Curtice, in a post originally published on What Scotland Thinks, responds to the results of the TNS BMRB poll commissioned by Sir Tom Hunter. This weekend saw the publication of a second poll to be conducted by TNS BMRB for Sir Tom Hunter’s scotlandseptember18.com website, the stated aim of wh... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
This blog originally appeared on What Scotland Thinks It has appeared to be the case for some time now that the referendum race has become becalmed once more. The Yes side appear to have maintained the gains they made in the winter, but without any consistent evidence of them having made any furthe... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
In a blog posted on What Scotland Thinks, John Curtice reflects on the official campaign period which launches today.  As doubtless most readers will be aware, today marks the official start of the campaign for the independence referendum – that is the period during which the amount of money that t... Read more
Post type: Blog entry

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