John Curtice's blog

Today’s co-ordinated statements by George Osborne, Ed Balls and Danny Alexander that they are not willing to contemplate the prospect of an independent Scotland forming a monetary union with the rest of the UK is probably the most dramatic intervention yet by the No side in the referendum campaign.  Their intention is to make it clear that such a possibility will be off the table irrespective of the outcome of the next UK general election in 2015. But will this prove a decisive move in the battle to win voters’ hearts and minds?

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John Curtice reviews the polls. He finds that most indicators continue to suggest that the verdict will be No and argues that although the debate will range far and wide in the coming months, the victory will ultimately go to the side that presents the most convincing economic argument. This blog was republished from LSE British Politics and Policy blog.

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by John Curtice, ESRC Fellow and  ScotCen Social Research

To have a prospect of being a ‘game changer’, at least so far as the balance of public opinion is concerned, the independence White Paper needed to have hit two buttons.

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Posts by this author:

On the face of it Labour’s proposals for more devolution would appear to fall well short of what might be required to convince voters that a No vote would be followed by the kind of enhanced devolution that a majority of people in Scotland would apparently like to see. In recent years the Scottish... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Today’s co-ordinated statements by George Osborne, Ed Balls and Danny Alexander that they are not willing to contemplate the prospect of an independent Scotland forming a monetary union with the rest of the UK is probably the most dramatic intervention yet by the No side in the referendum campaign.... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
This blog was republished from the Guardian, Thursday 30 January 2014 Economists tell us that the question of which currency to use is the most important financial decision that an independent state has to make. Meanwhile, whether or not they think independence would make Scotland more or less pros... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
John Curtice reviews the polls. He finds that most indicators continue to suggest that the verdict will be No and argues that although the debate will range far and wide in the coming months, the victory will ultimately go to the side that presents the most convincing economic argument. This blog w... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
by John Curtice, ESRC Fellow and  ScotCen Social Research To have a prospect of being a ‘game changer’, at least so far as the balance of public opinion is concerned, the independence White Paper needed to have hit two buttons. First it had to convince voters that they and their country would be ec... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The publication this week of the Scottish Government’s White Paper on Independence is arguably the most important development in the referendum campaign so far. It is intended to answer the public’s questions about what independence would entail – and to persuade them of the merits of a Yes vote. ... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
In theory this week’s SNP conference is a chance for a party in power to take stock at the mid-point of its current term in office. It should be able to look back with some satisfaction at polls that still largely put the party ahead in Scottish Parliament vote intentions and look forward with opti... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
As measured by Father Time at least, we have now reached the half way mark in the referendum campaign.  It is just over twelve months since the two ‘official’ referendum campaigns, Better Together and Yes Scotland, were launched. And it is just over twelve months to polling day on 18th September 20... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Now that the date of the independence referendum has been announced, the debate about Scotland’s constitutional future is in full swing. It is proving to be a strongly contested affair. But how deep are the differences and divisions within the Scottish public on this subject? Do different sections... Read more
Post type: Research briefings

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